Metinvest reported 4Q24 iron ore production of 3.5 Mt, up 4.4% q-o-q but down 2.4% y-o-y, bringing 2024 output to 15.7 Mt (+42% y-o-y).

US President Donald Trump held yesterday phone conversations with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, announcing agreement with Putin after a “lengthy and highly productive” talk to “immediately” start negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin readout of the call sounded more restrained, citing Putin’s emphasis on removing the “root causes” that led to the war and his consent that a long-term resolution “could be achieved via peace negotiations.” On the call with Zelensky, Trump said they mostly discussed the Ukrainian leader’s planned meeting on Friday with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that would be dedicated to peace discussions. Later Trump said he and Putin could tentatively meet in Saudi Arabia in “not too distant future” and at the same time added he supported Ukraine and did not rule out that the country might eventually regain part of the occupied territory.

Crude steel production in Ukraine totaled 611 kt in January, with daily production averaging 19.7 kt, both up 11.7% m-o-m and 12.3% y-o-y. Finished and semi-finished steel output was flat m-o-m and up 6.0% y-o-y at 480 kt, while hot metal production increased 5.2% m-o-m and 7.2% y-o-y to 595 kt.

DTEK Oil & Gas (DTEKOG) said that one of its gas production assets was damaged and had to suspend operations following a Russian missile and drone attack on Feb. 11. The company is assessing the extent of damage.

According to media reports, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will travel to Kyiv this week to discuss a potential deal, recently floated by President Donald Trump, to give the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other critical deposits as compensation for US support to the country in the war against Russia. Trump has confirmed Bessent’s visit, which would include a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, adding that “this war must and will end soon.”

The EBRD plans to provide at least EUR 1.5bn to support Ukraine in 2025, with the energy sector being a top priority. The Bank is prepared to double its support for the country to EUR 3bn per year after the war ends, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso has said.

Tonight, Russia conducted another large missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s natural gas infrastructure, reportedly using 19 different missiles to strike gas production assets in Poltava region. Nine regional villages remained without gas supply following the attack.

Ukraine’s headline CPI rose by 1.2% m-o-m in January following 1.4% growth in December, increasing the y-o-y tally to 12.9% from 12.0% a month earlier. Core inflation, which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices of raw foods and energy, was up 1.3% m-o-m, in line with December, rising in y-o-y terms to 11.7% from 10.7%.

US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the US, granting no exceptions.

Ukrenergo has published interim results of its meetings with members of an ad-hoc bondholder committee (“restricted holders”) about restructuring the company’s state-guaranteed $825m 6.875% 2026 Eurobond. Ukrenergo disclosed its proposal, the restricted holders’ counterproposal, its response to the counterproposal, and supplemental materials.

Key highlights from last week: The intensity of Russian ground assaults in Ukraine dropped sharply for the second consecutive week, but Russian bombing, drone and artillery strikes did not abate; Ukrainian forces made tactical gains in Russia’s Kursk region. The Ukrainian army starts major organizational reform. The US administration is stepping up diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to negotiate: President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet with Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference scheduled for Feb. 14-16, while US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has said providing security guarantees for Ukraine would be Europe’s responsibility.

NBU gross foreign reserves fell by 1.8% m-o-m ($0.8bn) to $43.0bn in January, being equivalent to 5.3 months of prospective goods and services imports, according to the central bank. The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar strengthened by 0.5% m-o-m to UAH 41.8:USD last month, yet weakened by 9.4% y-o-y.

Recent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure have damaged gas facilities and reduced Naftogaz’s gas production by as much as a third, forcing it to ramp up gas imports from Europe, with prospective imports seen at 1 bcm, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing an unnamed source.

The National Bank’s survey-based index of business activity, a PMI-type gauge, stood at 41.0 on a 0-100 scale in January, down 4.9pt m-o-m and flat y-o-y.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced yesterday the delivery to Ukraine of first Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from France and additional F-16 aircraft from the Netherlands.

According to provisional data from the Finance Ministry, the central budget’s cash-based deficit stood at UAH 70bn or $1.7bn in January, widening from UAH 15bn ($0.5bn) in January 2024.