US and Ukrainian delegations plan to meet in Saudi Arabia, tentatively next Wednesday, to discuss advancing the US-brokered peace process with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed he would travel to Saudi Arabia on Monday to meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, after which his team would remain on the ground for talks with US officials. The US delegation will reportedly include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, the same team that participated in earlier talks with Russia in Riyadh on Feb. 18. The Ukrainian side is expected to be represented by Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

The NBU Board increased its key rate by 100bp to 15.5% p.a. following hikes of 100bp in January and 50bp in December. The new hike was in line with the central bank’s latest forward guidance.

According to Ukraine’s State Statistics Service, monthly salaries paid to staff workers averaged UAH 21,473 ($535) in 2024, up 23.1% y-o-y following growth of 17.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2022.

According to provisional data from the Finance Ministry, the central budget’s cash-based deficit stood at UAH 159bn or $3.8bn in February, widening from $1.7bn in January and $2.9bn in February 2024 and bringing the 2M25 cash gap to UAH 230bn or $5.5bn, up from $3.4bn in 2M24.

Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, has announced plans to build a $76m multi-seed crushing plant in Khmelnytsky region in western Ukraine. The facility, with a planned oilseed processing capacity of 400 kt p.a. and focus on soybean and rapeseed processing, is expected to be launched in 2026.

Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) announced that the Pechersk District Court of Kyiv granted a motion filed by the Prosecutor General’s Office to transfer the corporate rights in 16 companies linked to Kostyantyn Zhevago to the state Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA), including a 49.5% stake in Ferrexpo Poltava Mining. The assets were arrested in relation to a case involving alleged embezzlement of $113m from Finance & Credit Bank.

President Volodymyr Zelensky published a statement yesterday, expressing his regret over last week’s contentious meeting in the White House and stating Ukraine’s willingness to engage in US-led negotiations to end the war with Russia. “My team and I stand ready to work under President [Donald] Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” the statement read. Zelensky then proposed first steps towards a potential peace agreement, including “the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-range drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.” “Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine imported 0.5 bcm of natural gas in February, including 0.1 bcm that went through immediate customs clearance. On a related note, Bloomberg, citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, wrote that Ukraine would need to import 3.5 bcm of gas to be able to meet domestic gas demand during the next heating season.

The Trump administration has suspended all current deliveries of US military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure the Ukrainian leadership to be more cooperative in engaging into peace talks with Russia, according to multiple media reports last night.

The Ukrainian National Bank’s survey-based index of business activity, a PMI-type gauge, stood at 46.9 on a 0-100 scale in February, up 5.9pt m-o-m and down 0.6pt y-o-y.

Base load day-ahead (DAHD) electricity prices in Ukraine averaged UAH 5,873 (EUR 135)/MWh in February, up 5.9% m-o-m and 89% y-o-y. The average bilateral base load price on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEEX) for February supplies was up 1.6% m-o-m at UAH 5,414/MWh (+74% y-o-y), or 7.8% below the day-ahead level. March baseload electricity supplies are currently priced slightly higher at UAH 5,611/MWh (+3.6% m-o-m, +133% y-o-y).

Key highlights from last week: Russian forces made potentially dangerous tactical advances in Kursk region. The front line inside Ukraine remained largely stable, with Russian territorial gains and the intensity of Russian assaults slowing to levels not seen since mid-2024. Russia sharply increased the intensity of drone attacks against civilian targets across Ukraine in February, deploying more than 3,900 UAVs, a new all-time high and up almost 50% m-o-m.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced yesterday a four-step European approach to guarantee future peace in Ukraine, including keeping up military aid for the country while the war is continuing, ensuring Ukraine’s participation in any peace talks, putting in place deterrents to a new Russian invasion, and creating a “coalition of the willing” to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. Speaking after hosting a summit attended by 15 NATO countries and Ukraine as well as the heads of EU and NATO, Starmer said it was Europe’s responsibility to “do the heavy lifting” but it needed US backing. He said the peace plan to be jointly developed with Ukraine would be presented to the US. Starmer also announced almost $5bn in UK military support for Ukraine, including around $2bn to manufacture and purchase over 5,000 air defense missiles.

The IMF and Ukrainian authorities have reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) on the seventh review under the Fund’s $15.5bn 4-year EFF program, part of a $151bn 2023-1Q27 support package for Ukraine. IMF mission chief Gavin Grey said the IMF Board’s approval was “expected in the coming weeks” and would lead to disbursement of $0.4bn, the program’s eighth loan tranche. The tranche amount was reduced from the originally scheduled $0.9bn due to Ukraine asking to redistribute IMF funding to later reviews in order to align it with the country’s balance of payments needs. 

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, has published its 2Q25FY financial results (4Q24 calendar quarter), reporting sales of $1,149m, up 44% q‑o‑q and 10% y-o-y, EBITDA of $118m, down 30% q-o-q and 42% y-o-y, and net income of $56m, down 54% q-o-q and 58% y-o-y.

Ukraine’s integration into the EU will be a sensitive and complex process due to its agricultural sector, which poses challenges for European farmers, but the issue can be resolved and Ukraine would be in a position to join the EU before 2030, according to EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova. Speaking at an agricultural conference in Kyiv, Mathernova cited historical examples, such as French and Italian winemakers’ protests at admitting Spain and Portugal to the EU in the 1980s, which were ultimately resolved over time and are no longer a problem for the EU common market.