According to preliminary data from the NBU, Ukrainian banks reported a combined pre-tax income of UAH 187bn ($4.7bn) in 2024, up 17% y-o-y. Total net income increased by 25% y-o-y to UAH 104bn ($2.6bn), while the aggregate capital adequacy ratio (CAR; under NBU methodology) totaled 17.4% at year-end, down 3.7pp y-o-y.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday his diplomacy efforts with Ukraine and Russia were proceeding “pretty well.” Trump spoke after both Ukraine and Russia confirmed that their delegations would hold “technical” talks with US negotiators in Saudi Arabia on Mar. 24. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, those would be separate US-Ukrainian and US-Russian discussions.

Ukraine has received the second EUR 1.0bn tranche from the EU’s EUR 18.1bn special macro-financial assistance (MFA) program, which forms the EU’s contribution to a $50bn G7-led Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) initiative. The funds are expected to be repaid using proceeds from immobilized Russian sovereign assets held in the EU. Similar to the previous EUR 3.0bn disbursement in January, the funds carry a maturity of up to 45 years and will be used to cover critical budgetary expenses — both social and military — as well as reconstruction projects. On a related note, the European Commission stated that discussions with Ukraine regarding the timeline for subsequent disbursements are ongoing. The Commission also expressed readiness to accelerate the remaining part of the special MFA program in line with Ukraine’s needs.

The US could manage the operation of a nuclear plant in Ukraine "with very little problem" if a political decision were made, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg. Wright’s comments came a day after President Donald Trump discussed potential cooperation in Ukraine’s nuclear power sector during a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, “the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its US electricity and utility expertise, [and] American ownership of nuclear power plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure.”

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, has signed an agreement to acquire over 41% of the share capital of UVESA, one of Spain’s leading poultry producers, at a fixed price of EUR 225 per share. The deal includes an additional contingent consideration of up to EUR 21.43 per share, subject to certain post-closing conditions. The agreement also allows other UVESA shareholders to join the share purchase agreement within one month of signing under the same terms.

Ferrexpo reported 2024 net sales of $933m (+43% y-o-y), EBITDA of $76m (-23%), for an EBITDA margin of 8.1% (-12pp y-o-y), and a net loss of $50m (vs. $85m loos in 2023). Net operating cash flow declined 9.2% y-o-y to $92m, investing cash outflow was steady at $98m (+1%), and financing cash outflow shrank 3.5% to $5.7m. The company had no debt as of end-2024 (vs. $7m a year earlier) and $106m of cash (-8.1% y-o-y). Volume sales surged by 64% y-o-y to 6.8 Mt, with C1 cash production costs rising 10% y-o-y to $83.9/t.

According to preliminary data from the NBU, state-owned Ukreximbank booked a net loss of UAH 0.3bn ($9m) in 4Q24, down from net profit of UAH 1.5bn ($36m) in 3Q24, bringing 2024 net income to UAH 5.6bn ($138m), up 50% y-o-y.

Metinvest reported 2024 sales of $8.1bn (+8.8% y-o-y), including $4.8bn in the metallurgical segment (-0.5% y-o-y) and $3.2bn in mining (+26% y-o-y). EBITDA rose by 11% y-o-y to $957m, including metallurgical EBITDA of $289m (+82% y-o-y) and mining EBITDA of $768m (-0.3%).

The Ukrainian economy rose by 1.1% y-o-y in 2M25, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said yesterday. GDP growth over the period was supported by reconstruction works fueled by budget spending, a pickup in the metallurgical sector and further expansion of military production. Labor shortages, limited access to financing, new damage to energy infrastructure, and rising energy and logistics costs continued to curb growth.

US President Donald Trump held a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin yesterday, during which the Russian leader agreed to Trump’s proposal for a 30-day halt on strikes on energy infrastructure between Russian and Ukraine, according to the White House and Kremlin readouts of the conversation. The sides also agreed to immediately begin “technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace,” with the first round reportedly to be held in Saudi Arabia on Mar. 23. President Volodymyr Zelensky positively responded to the proposed 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire but said the Ukrainian side expected to receive more details from the US and then “we will prepare our answer and the team will be ready for technical talks.”

Metinvest reported 2024 sales of $8.1bn (+8.8% y-o-y), including $4.8bn in the metallurgical segment (-0.5% y-o-y) and $3.2bn in mining (+26% y-o-y). EBITDA rose by 11% y-o-y to $957m, including metallurgical EBITDA of $289m (+82% y-o-y) and mining EBITDA of $768m (-0.3%).

While the US administration is undertaking efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, the fighting on the ground and Russian attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure are continuing. With the still prevailing uncertainty, we maintain our two forecast scenarios for 2025, updating both to factor in recent developments. Our “extended-war scenario” assumes fighting will continue for the rest of this year, while the “settlement” scenario is predicated on a lasting resolution to the war being achieved in 2Q25 based off the current front lines.  

The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas said yesterday there was “broad political support” among EU members for a new military aid package for Ukraine of EUR 20-40bn ($22-44bn) that would deliver 2 million rounds of artillery ammunition along with further spending on air defense, missiles, drones, fighter jets, and other equipment. EU leaders are expected to discuss the initiative at a summit on Thursday, but a final decision is unlikely as important technical details, including on country participation and individual contributions, are not yet finalized. Ideas being discussed include allowing non-EU countries, namely the UK and Norway, to participate and seek contributions from a “coalition of the willing” rather than the entire EU so as to bypass potential vetoes by Hungary and Slovakia.

According to minutes from the latest meeting of the Ukrainian central bank’s 11-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which preceded the NBU Board’s rate meeting on Mar. 6, seven members favored a 100bp key rate hike, to 15.5% p.a., which was ultimately approved by the Board, and four members supported a 50bp increase. In addition, most MPC members supported changing the operational design in order to tighten banks’ competition for household term deposits and consequently facilitating monetary transmission.

Capital investment in Ukraine rose by 35% y-o-y in nominal terms in 2024, to UAH 534bn ($13bn), following 41% growth in 2023.

Key highlights from last week: Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from Russia’s Kursk region, continuing to hold a small high-terrain area along the border. The front lines inside Ukraine barely moved for the third consecutive week, with Ukrainian forces increasingly counterattacking in different locations. The US-led ceasefire diplomacy is in full swing, with US President Donald Trump announcing a call with the Russian leader on Tuesday.