The IMF Board on Dec. 20 approved the sixth review of its $15.6bn 4-year EFF program for Ukraine, with the program’s seventh loan tranche of $1.1bn disbursed shortly thereafter.

Ukraine ceased pumping Russian natural gas through its territory on Jan. 1, following the expiration of the five-year transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom without a new deal being negotiated.

According to provisional data from Ukraine’s State Customs Service, the merchandise trade gap widened by $1.8bn y-o-y to $25bn in 11M24, with exports increasing by 17% ($5.4bn) to $38.4bn and imports rising by 11% ($7.2bn) y-o-y to $63.6bn. Based on these figures, the merchandise trade deficit totaled $2.5bn in November, up from $2.3bn in October, as exports slid by 5.0% m-o-m to $3.7bn (still +17% y-o-y) and imports were flat at $6.2bn (+21% y-o-y).

Interpipe reported 9M24 net sales of $803m (+2.2% y-o-y), EBITDA of $200m (-30%), for an EBITDA margin of 25% (-12pp), and net income of $203m (+7.4%). Pipe segment EBITDA was down 12% y-o-y to $139m, rail wheel EBITDA rebounded by 35% to $39m, and steel EBITDA declined by 19% to $81m. On a pass-through basis (without attribution to the steelmaking segment), pipe EBITDA was down 39% y-o-y at $139m, wheel EBITDA increased by 11% to $57m, and steel EBITDA dropped by 31% to $5.0m.

Ukraine’s iron ore exports totaled 30.3 Mt in 11M24 (+87% y-o-y), implying November sales of 2.5 Mt, down 3% m-o-m but up 25% y-o-y). In value terms, iron ore exports totaled $2.5bn in 11M24 (+56% y-o-y), suggesting a 13% m-o-m increase in November, to $188m (+21% y-o-y).

Metinvest has completed its tender for 2025 notes, accepting EUR 16.3m worth of bonds for repurchase. The outstanding bond principal will thus drop to EUR 162m following settlement on Dec. 23.

The World Bank has approved a $2bn budget support package for Ukraine, including a $1bn grant from the Financial Intermediary Fund, which was created to transact the United States’ $20bn contribution to the $50 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) mechanism, the G7’s aid package backed by profits from immobilized Russian sovereign assets. Another $1.05bn was supported by earlier commitments from Japan and the UK. 

Metinvest has made a coupon payment on its 2025 Eurobonds that was scheduled for Dec. 17, the company confirmed.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, has attracted $25m from the Dutch development bank FMO as part of a pre-export credit facility to fund its working capital needs in vegoil segment.

Outstanding hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks increased by 1.5% m-o-m to UAH 846bn in gross terms in November, accelerating from 0.2% growth in October and rising by 16% y-o-y. Total F/X loans increased by 1.1% m-o-m to $6.3bn, sliding by 7.5% y-o-y.

According to preliminary NBU data, state Oschadbank booked net profit of UAH 3.0bn ($57m) in 3Q24 (-24% q-o-q), bringing 9M24 net income to UAH 11.8bn ($298m), off 17% y-o-y. Total assets in UAH terms decreased by 1.2% q-o-q to UAH 404bn (+28% y-o-y), with net loans up 5.4% q-o-q (+23% y-o-y), securities holdings expanding by 4.0% q-o-q (+38% y-o-y) but cash and cash equivalents shrinking by 20% q-o-q. Customer deposits fell by 2.7% q-o-q in UAH terms, to UAH 343bn (+27% y-o-y).

According to preliminary data from the NBU, state-owned Ukreximbank booked net profit of UAH 1.5bn ($36m) in 3Q24, down 20% q-o-q, bringing 9M24 net income to UAH 5.9bn ($148m), up 63% y-o-y.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Naftogaz at CC. The agency also affirmed Naftogaz’s Eurobond rating at C, with a recovery rating of RR6. Fitch noted that Naftogaz faces very high operational risks amid the ongoing war, weak projected liquidity, slow payments for gas, and limited external funding options. Fitch expects Naftogaz to maintain a positive operating cash flow in 2025 despite the expiration of a gas transit contract with Gazprom, which “could result in a significant revenue loss for Naftogaz.”

The state rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) published its 1H24 financial results, reporting sales of UAH 53.9bn ($1.4bn), up 19% y-o-y, EBITDA of UAH 13.4bn ($345m), up 10% y-o-y, and net income of UAH 3.2bn ($81m), down 33%. End-1H24 net debt stood at UAH 36.8bn ($0.9bn), down 3% from end-2023, for a Net Debt to LTM EBITDA of 1.7x (vs. 1.9x as of end-2023).

Monthly salaries paid to staff workers in Ukraine averaged UAH 21,946 in 3Q24, rising by 22% y-o-y, in line with 2Q24 and 1Q24. In USD terms, the average nominal salary increased by 8.7% y-o-y to $533, slowing from 12% y-o-y in 2Q24 and 17% in 1Q24.

On Friday, Russia conducted another mass attack on the Ukrainian energy system, the 12th such strike since March. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the attack involved 193 drones and 94 missiles, mostly Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles as well as hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, of which 81 missiles were intercepted and almost all drones either shot down or jammed. Still, the attack caused localized blackouts in the Lviv, Odesa and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, forced nuclear power units to temporarily cut production, while transmission system operator Ukrenergo increased power rationing for households.