State rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) reported 2024 freight transportation of 174.8 Mt, +18% y-o-y, implying a December volume of 14.0 Mt, up 0.5% m-o-m and 2.5% y-o-y.

Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said Ukraine had repaired 4 GW of power generating capacities in 2024 and planned to bring back on-stream 3 GW in 2025. Additionally, over 830 MW of new power generation was built and connected to the grid last year, with another 900 MW of distributed generation to follow in 2025.

Key highlights from last week: Russian territorial gains remain subdued despite heavy offensive pressure in Donetsk region Zelensky appoints reputable commander to lead Ukrainian forces on eastern front Ukraine continues mass strikes against Russian infrastructure New US administration details its approach to future peace talks, Russia responds with mixed messages

The rating agency S&P upgraded its long-term issuer credit rating on Ukrainian Railways to CCC- from CC, with a negative outlook, after the company paid coupons on its 2026 and 2028 Eurobonds earlier this month.

The NBU raised its key rate by 100bp to 14.5% following a 50bp hike in December, justifying the decision by faster-than-expected inflation (12.0% y-o-y at end-2024 vs. 9.7% the NBU had projected in October) and the need to maintain F/X market stability, keep expectations under control and ensure a reversal in inflation dynamics. The NBU revised its forward guidance, projecting another 100bp hike at its next meeting in March and a return to rate cuts in June, seeing a cumulative 300bp of cuts in 2H25, to 12.5% by end-2025, as opposed to its previous guidance that projected a flat rate of 13% until mid-2025 and a dip to 12% later. Based on the new guidance, another 150bp of cuts would follow in 2026, to 11% (in line with previous forecast), and -100bp in 2027, to 10%. The NBU also revised its macro forecast, increasing end-2025E headline CPI by 1.5pp to 8.4% y-o-y and keeping its view that inflation will return to the target level of 5% by end-2026. The Bank also revised 2025E core CPI by 2.1pp higher, to 7.8% y-o-y e-o-p, keeping its end-2026 estimate unchanged at 3.1% and projecting the same tally for 2027.

Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, plans to attract a $40m loan from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to finance the construction and operation of a soybean protein concentrate plant in Poltava region. The loan parameters were not disclosed.

US President Donald Trump, in a social media post published yesterday, threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with “high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States” if he refused to negotiate a deal to end the war in Ukraine in the nearest future. “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better,” Trump said.

DTEK Renewables has secured a EUR 370m loan from Danish banks (including Danske Bank), guaranteed by the Danish Growth Fund, to build the second phase of its Tyligul Wind Power Plant by purchasing and installing 64 Vestas turbines, 6 MW each, by the end of 2026. The project will expand Tyligul’s capacity to almost 500 MW from current 114 MW. The project’s total CAPEX is estimated at EUR 450m.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday he could impose additional sanctions on Russia if it showed unwillingness to negotiate to end its war in Ukraine. Trump also said he would “look into” the possibility of providing further military aid for Ukraine. A day earlier, speaking shortly after his inauguration, Trump said ending the war in Ukraine remained among his priorities (“we’re going to try and get it done as quickly as possible”), confirming earlier reports that work was underway to prepare his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, in contrast to his pre-election statements, he sounded less confident about the prospects for a quick settlement, saying “I don’t know if Putin [wants to make a deal]” but adding that the situation Russia, both militarily and economically, should be a motivating factor for the Russian president. “I think [Putin’s] destroying Russia by not making a deal … He’s grinding it out. Most people thought [the war] would last about one week and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good,” Trump said.

According to a Dec. 2-17 poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS), a private pollster, 52% of respondents said they trusted President Volodymyr Zelensky, down from 59% in May and September last year and 77% in December 2023. The share of those distrusting the president stood at 39%, above 35-37% in 2024 and 22% in December 2023. According to a separate survey, held by the polling firm SOCIS, one of Ukraine’s oldest, between Dec. 5-11 and published by a local media outlet, former army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny would beat Zelensky in potential presidential elections, 36% to 24% in the first round and 68% to 32% in a runoff. Other possible contenders would score less than 10%, the poll found.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 7.8bn ($184m) of hryvnia-denominated bonds at a primary auction yesterday.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, published its 2Q25FY (October-December 2024) operating results, reporting vegetable oil sales of 408 kt, up 52% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y, and the volume of oilseeds crushed of 973 kt, up 42% q‑o‑q and 20% y‑o‑y).  Grain exports totaled 1.4 Mt over the period, down 6.8% q-o-q and 22% y-o-y due to a lower 2024 crop harvest. Crop turnover at Kernel’s export terminals in the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk totaled 2.6 Mt, up 19% q-o-q and 45% y-o-y.

Ukraine had 9.6 bcm of natural gas in its underground storage reservoirs at the end of 2024, down from 13 bcm a year earlier and 8.7 bcm as of Jan. 20 (-24% y-o-y).

Key highlights from last week: Russian forced continued relentless assaults throughout the eastern front but achieved only minor gains, remaining focused on encircling Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. Ukraine conducted its largest missile and drone strike against Russia, targeting military fuel storage and industrial and pipeline facilities.

WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, boosted 4Q24 sugar sales by 37% q-o-q to 107 kt (+32% y-o-y), priced at $535/t on average (-8.2% q-o-q and -19% y-o-y). Grain and oilseed sales jumped by 33% q-o-q to 229 kt (-57% y-o-y). Soybean oil sales surged by 58% q-o-q to 13 kt (+25% y-o-y) and soybean meal sales increased by 46% q-o-q to 43 kt (-5.5% y-o-y). Astarta also reported 2024 sugar production of 380 kt (+0.8% y-o-y), having processed 2.5 Mt of sugar beets (-7.4% y-o-y). Its sugar extraction rate stood at 14.96%, above the national average of 14.06%.

Natural gas production in Ukraine increased by 2.2% y-o-y to 19.1 bcm in 2024, including 14.6 bcm extracted by Naftogaz (+4.6%) and 1.2 bcm by its majority-owned subsidiary Ukrnafta (+6.6%). Private operators cut gas production by 8.1% y-o-y to 3.4 bcm.