DTEK Energy CEO Oleksandr Fomenko said the company invested close to UAH 11bn ($270m) in its thermal power plants and coal mines in 2024, including UAH 3.0bn ($73m) in thermal power plant repairs and UAH 7.5bn ($180m) in coal mining.

Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said her agency estimated 2024 real GDP growth at 3.6% y-o-y, with government-sponsored growth programs contributing 0.6pp to last year’s pickup. The Economy Ministry’s analytical report confirmed its earlier estimate of November real GDP growth at 0.9% y-o-y (vs. 1.3% in October) but revised its 11M24 real GDP estimate 0.4pp down, to 3.6%.

The stock of hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks dropped by 2.2% m-o-m to UAH 829bn in December following 1.7% growth in November, bringing the full-year growth tally to 14% y-o-y, up from 1.3% in 2023. F/X-denominated loans were virtually unchanged in m-o-m terms (-0.2% to $6.3bn), shrinking for the full year by 5.7% after an 8.3% decline in 2023.

Negotiating a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine will take “months or even longer,” Reuters reported yesterday, citing unidentified advisers to US President-elect Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Trump’s pick for secretary of state Marco Rubio said during a Senate hearing that an agreement to stop the war would need to involve concessions from both Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine’s recognition that it cannot regain all occupied territory. Rubio said that achieving a peace deal would “require bold diplomacy … and tough work” and “is not going to be an easy endeavor.” He added that it was important to ensure leverage for Ukraine in future talks and that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s maximum goal to “impose neutrality on Ukraine, retrofit and come back and do this again in four or five years” was not something “any of us would favor.”

The State Customs Service reported a merchandise trade deficit of $29bn in 2024, including $3.8bn in December, up from $2.5bn in November. December exports fell by 10% m-o-m to $3.3bn (+3.2% y-o-y), bringing the full-year tally to $41.7bn, up 15% y-o-y, while imports jumped by 14% m-o-m to $7.1bn (+14% y-o-y), hitting $70.7bn in 2024 (+11% y-o-y).

Ukraine’s iron ore exports stood at 33.7 Mt in 2024, up 90% y-o-y, suggesting a 40% m-o-m surge in December exports, to 3.4 Mt (+115% y-o-y). In value terms, iron ore exports totaled $2.8bn in 2024, up 59% y-o-y, implying $273m in December, up 45% m-o-m and 92% y-o-y.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 8.2bn ($193m) of hryvnia-denominated bonds at a primary auction yesterday.

Government Commissioner for Public Debt Management Yuriy Butsa said the authorities have not yet engaged with a respective committee on restructuring the GDP warrants, with internal talks with government agencies and official creditors on the best way to approach the issue ongoing.

Vodafone Ukraine (VFU), Ukraine’s second largest mobile operator, approached holders of its $400m 2025 Eurobonds maturing on Feb. 11 with a restructuring proposal. A consent solicitation published yesterday offered an upfront payment of $99.9m (25% of the outstanding principal) at maturity and asked to extend the remaining principal maturity to Feb. 11, 2027, while increasing the coupon rate to 9.625% from 6.2%. VFU also proposed to grant bondholders a put option to enable them to redeem the notes at par in the event that prevailing F/X restrictions in Ukraine are further relaxed to allow VFU to repay the remaining principal using its local liquidity. VFU also proposed to introduce new covenants requiring it to maintain liquidity of $150m and increase it to at least $200m from Aug. 11, 2025, along with additional limitations on restricted payments and affiliate transactions and investments.

Metinvest has confirmed that it suspended production at its Pokrovske Coal subsidiary due to the deteriorating security situation in its area and associated power shortages. Metinvest’s management team is implementing contingency plans to maintain the availability of raw materials necessary for steel production, including increasing coking coal supplies from the US subsidiary UCC, utilizing existing coal stocks, and arranging additional third-party supplies.

Crude steel production in Ukraine increased by 22% y-o-y to 7.6 Mt in 2024, finished and semi-finished steel output rose by 16% to 6.2 Mt, and hot metal production went up by 18% to 7.1 Mt.

According to a Reuters report, citing two industry sources, Metinvest halted coal production at Pokrovske Coal due to the proximity of attacking Russian forces, with the fighting reported ongoing less than 2 km from one of the mine shafts. Pokrovske Coal said it temporarily reduced mining operations, without specifying absolute production volumes.

Ukraine exported 4.1 Mt of grain and oilseeds in December, down 15% m-o-m and 31% y‑o‑y. Grain exports totaled 3.6 Mt, down 13% m-o-m and 32% y-o-y, while oilseed exports stood at 0.6 Mt, down 28% m-o-m and 25% y-o-y. Ukraine thus exported 61.4 Mt of grain and oilseed crops in 2024, up 19% y-o-y, with grain exports at 53.8 Mt, up 22% y-o-y, and oilseed exports at 7.6 Mt, up 5% y-o-y.

Ukraine has received a EUR 3.0bn aid tranche from the EU, the first disbursement from a EUR 18.1bn special macro-financial assistance (MFA) program that serves as the EU’s contribution to the G7’s $50bn Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans initiative and is to be repaid with proceeds from immobilized Russian sovereign assets held in the EU. The disbursed funds have a maturity of up to 45 years and will be used to reimburse critical budget expenditures, both social and military ones, and finance reconstruction. The following tranches of the special MFA package will be disbursed between March and November at EUR 1.0bn per month, with the remaining EUR 6.1bn scheduled for December.

Headline consumer inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 12.0% y-o-y in December from 11.2% in November and 5.1% at end-2023, bringing last year’s average tally to 6.5% y-o-y, down from 12.9% in 2023 and 20.2% in 2022.

Ukraine’s headline current account (C/A) deficit narrowed to $0.8bn in November from $1.9bn in October, while the financial and capital account (F/A) balance, including IMF funds, ran a $4.4bn surplus after registering a $0.4bn deficit in October. Thus, the total balance came in at +$3.5bn, recovering from -$2.3bn in October and bringing the 11M24 tally to -$1.3bn, still down from a $9.7bn surplus in 11M23.