Ukraine’s state regulator for the telecom sector will on Nov. 19 auction additional 2,100 MHz, 2,300 MHz and 2,600 MHz bands for the 4G spectrum, providing respective licenses to the major domestic cellular operators Vodafone Ukraine (VFU), Kyivstar and Lifecell.

According to a Sep. 20-Oct. 3 survey by the Kyiv International of Sociology (KIIS), the share of respondents agreeing that Ukraine could accept a loss of territory in exchange for a quicker peace deal with Russia stood at 32%, unchanged from May this year and up from 10-19% polled throughout 2023. Any territorial losses remained unacceptable for 58% of those questioned, up slightly from 55% in May and down from 74-84% last year.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 20.3bn ($491m) of hryvnia-denominated bonds and $130m of F/X debt at a primary auction yesterday.

Fitch has downgraded Ukrenergo to Restricted Default (RD) from CC after the company suspended coupon payments on its Eurobonds.

According to minutes from the latest meeting of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which preceded the NBU Board’s rate meeting on Oct. 31, 9 out of 10 MPC members favored leaving the key rate unchanged at 13.0% and one member called for a 50bp hike to 13.5%. The MPC cited the continued aggravation of inflationary pressures, which proved stronger than the central bank had expected and were fueled by a weaker agricultural harvest, rising business costs due to a spike in power prices and acute labor deficit, and the pass-through effect of hryvnia weakness. The majority of MPC members agreed that the current key rate level together with NBU measures intended to support F/X market stability were sufficient to curb inflation and bring it back to the 5% target in the coming years, keeping inflation expectations anchored and maintaining the attractiveness of UAH-denominated assets.

Crude steel production in Ukraine totaled 6.5 Mt in 10M24, up 26% y-o-y, with finished and semi-finished steel output rising by 21% y-o-y to 5.3 Mt and hot metal production jumping 22% to 6.0 Mt.

Russian forces have intensified their offensive in eastern Ukraine since August, making tangible gains after months of barely registerable grinding advances.

Ukraine’s headline CPI rose by 1.8% m-o-m in October, accelerating from 1.5% in September and 0.6% in August and pushing the y-o-y tally to 9.7% from 8.6% in September. Core inflation, which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices of raw foods and energy, increased by 1.3% m-o-m, slowing from 1.7% growth in September, but accelerated in y-o-y terms to 8.3% from 7.3%.

Key highlights from last week: Russian forces continue advancing in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove sector in Donetsk region, the rest of the front line remains stable Russia has reportedly launched a new offensive in Kursk Donald Trump’s electoral victory fuels ceasefire speculation, but numerous uncertainties remain

According to provisional data from the Finance Ministry, the central budget’s cash-based deficit widened to UAH 198bn ($4.8bn) in October from UAH 127bn ($3.1bn) in September.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday he was open to holding discussions with Donald Trump. “What has been said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to contribute to the end of the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion — I think it deserves attention,” Putin said. At the same time, the Russian leader reiterated his conditions for a peaceful settlement, including Ukraine’s neutral status.

NBU gross foreign reserves dropped by 6.0% (-$2.3bn) m-o-m in October, to $36.6bn (-10% YTD), equivalent to 4.6 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar fluctuated only slightly in October, ending the month at UAH 41.3:USD, flat m-o-m and down 8.0% YTD.

Ukraine’s state power transmission system operator Ukrenergo announced a temporary suspension of scheduled payments under its $825m 2028 Eurobond, which would last until the end of the restructuring process. The decision was backed by the Ukrainian Energy Ministry, the government agency representing the company’s shareholder. Ukrenergo said it hoped to agree restructuring terms “in the coming months.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday he held a phone call with Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory, adding the two leaders agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance bilateral cooperation. In an earlier congratulatory statement, Zelensky expressed his appreciation of Trump’s “‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” saying it could bring a just peace in Ukraine closer, and added Ukraine relied on continued strong bipartisan support in the US.

Vodafone Ukraine (VFU), Ukraine’s second largest mobile operator, reported 9M24 revenues of $454m (+4% y-o-y), EBITDA of $240m (-3%) and net income of $74m (-29%). The EBITDA margin dropped by 4.0pp y-o-y to 52.9% and net margin shrank by 7.7pp y-o-y to 16.2%.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 20.9bn ($506m) of hryvnia-denominated bonds at a primary auction yesterday.