WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reported a 45% q-o-q drop in sugar sales in 3Q24, to 78 kt (-6.4% y-o-y), priced at $581/t on average (-5.9% q-o-q and -20% y-o-y). Grain and oilseed sales jumped by 38% q-o-q to 173 kt (+2.5x y-o-y). Soybean oil sales slid by 40% q-o-q to 8 kt (-13% y-o-y) and soybean meal sales decreased by 35% q-o-q to 29 kt (-1.2% y-o-y).

According to a White House statement published on Friday, the leaders of G7 countries have reached a consensus on how to deliver $50bn in Extraordinary Revenues Acceleration (ERA) loans to Ukraine. The ERA funds, being a mechanism backed by profits generated from immobilized Russian sovereign assets, will be delivered via multiple channels and support Ukraine’s budget, military needs and reconstruction efforts, with first disbursements expected by the end of this year.

Russian forces continue advancing around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk, achieving largest weekly gain in their year-long offensive

Prices of Ukrainian sovereign and select corporate Eurobonds have been trending higher over the past several weeks, driven by market optimism about a potential ceasefire.

According to a Sep. 20-26 nationwide poll by Razumkov Center, an independent think tank, 35% of respondents supported the statement that negotiations with Russia “are an effective way to achieve peace and should be used right now,” up from 21% a year ago and 13% in early 2023.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, has attracted a $150m pre-export credit facility (PXF) from a syndicate of European banks to fund its working capital needs in the vegetable oil segment. This extendable loan, maturing on Aug. 1, 2025, became the first new financing provided by foreign lenders to Kernel since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Naftogaz subsidiaries Ukrgazvydobuvannya (fully owned) and Ukrnafta (50%-owned) increased extraction of sellable natural gas by 6.8% y-o-y to 11 bcm in 9M24.

Total hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose by 1.8% m-o-m to UAH 831bn in gross terms in September, on top of a 1.5% increase in August, accelerating in y-o-y terms to 17%, from 14% in mid-2024 and 7.3% y-o-y as of end-1Q24. Outstanding F/X loans inched down by 0.2% m-o-m to $6.3bn, reducing the rate of y-o-y decline to -5.5% from -6.9% in mid-2024 and -8.6% at end-1Q24.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, at a meeting with Ukrainian and foreign journalists, said that reaching agreement with Russia to halt reciprocal strikes against energy infrastructure could, together with Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and civilian vessels, open the door to negotiating an end to the hot phase of the war. “Getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war,” Zelensky said. But above all, Zelensky stressed, Russia’s readiness to negotiate was dependent on the outcome of the US presidential elections. At the same time, he added that a potential deal on energy security and commercial navigation does not mean that Russia “will not launch, for example, drones against our military targets and we won’t attack their military targets.”

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday the US was “99% there” in terms of contributing $20bn to the G7’s $50bn Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration package for Ukraine (ERA) backed by profits from frozen Russian assets.

Fitch Ratings upgraded its long-term issuer default rating (IDR) on Kernel Holding to CCC- from CC, reflecting the company’s timely repayment of its $300m notes earlier this month. According to Fitch, Kernel had $550m of cash following the redemption, held both onshore and offshore (down from its combined liquidity position of $0.8bn as of end-March 2024), as well as $250m of undrawn credit facilities, all this being sufficient to cover the company’s seasonally high working capital needs. On top of the available cash and undrawn debt facilities, Kernel’s proprietary trading arm Avere had of $150m of trade finance limits.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced $400m in new military aid for Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) during his visit to Kyiv yesterday, on top of $425m in weapon and ammunition supplies announced last week. Additionally, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US was readying a $800m package to fund Ukrainian drone production.

As of Oct. 17, Ukrainian farmers harvested 60.8 Mt of grain and oilseeds (+5.3% y-o-y) from an area of 17.6 Mha (+12% y-o-y), or 88% of this year’s planted area. The corn harvest totaled 13.2 Mt (+42% y-o-y), gathered from 59% of the cropland (vs. 34% year ago) at an average yield of 5.6 t/ha (-17% y-o-y). The sunflower harvest, 91% complete (vs. 86% last year), totaled 9.3 Mt (-9.1% y-o-y) or 2.1 t/ha on average (-12% y-o-y). Lastly, farmers harvested 88% of soybean plantings, generally in line with last year, gathering 5.2 Mt (+22% y-o-y) at an average yield of 2.2 t/ha (-14% y-o-y).

The Ukrainian government has approved the appointment of Oleksandr Pertsovskyi as the new CEO of Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) for a three-year term. The Cabinet also formally dismissed the former CEO, Yevhen Liashchenko, appointing him as a RAILUA management board member through March 2025. Three other management board members were dismissed.

Key highlights from last week: Russian forces advance in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, maintaining a high tempo of assaults despite record weekly losses Ukrainian officials say around 3,000 North Korean troops to be deployed on the Kursk front in Russia, out of c. 11,000 claimed to be training in Russia. Awaiting next month’s Ramstein meeting for clarity on near-term Western aid for Ukraine.

The IMF Board approved the fifth review of its $15.6bn 4-year EFF program for Ukraine, authorizing provision of the program’s sixth loan tranche of $1.1bn and bringing total disbursements since the EFF was approved in March 2023 to $8.9bn. Assuming that the war in Ukraine will continue throughout 2025, the IMF revised its macroeconomic forecast and assessment of Ukraine’s external funding needs during the life of the IMF program (by end-1Q27). The latter increased to $151bn in the baseline scenario (from $122bn before) and $187bn in the downside scenario (from $141bn). The IMF said that the program remained fully financed, including with new commitments from the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative, being a $50bn funding package backed by profits from immobilized Russian sovereign assets. The Fund also changed the schedule of future tranches, moving a portion of 2026-2027 disbursements to 2025. As a result, Ukraine may receive another $1.1bn tranche this year (unchanged from previous schedule), $2.7bn in 2025 (+$0.9bn), $1.9bn in 2026 (-$0.6bn), and $1.1bn in 2027 (-$0.2bn).