Ukraine exported 4.1 Mt of grain and oilseeds in June, the final month of the marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (July 2023 — June 2024), down 28% m-o-m but up 2% y‑o‑y. Grain exports totaled 3.9 Mt, down 29% m-o-m but up 3% y-o-y, and oilseed exports stood at 218 kt (+5% m-o-m but -9% y-o-y). Ukraine thus exported 57.1 Mt of grain and oilseed crops in 2023/24 MY, up 0.6% y-o-y, with grain exports at 49.9 Mt, up 5% y-o-y, and oilseed exports at 7.1 Mt, down 21% y-o-y. On a related note, the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry has upgraded its 2024 grain and oilseed harvest estimate from 74 Mt to 77 Mt (still -6% y-o-y), noting favorable weather conditions for early crops. The revised harvest estimate includes 56 Mt of grain (-7% y-o-y) and 21 Mt of oilseeds (-5%).

Russia launched another mass missile strike against Ukraine on Monday, targeting Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region with 44 cruise, ballistic and other missiles. The Ukrainian military reported 33 missiles (75%) shot down. However, the missiles that came through inflicted significant casualties due to being aimed at purely civilian targets. In Kyiv, Russian missiles hit the main children’s hospital, a maternity clinic, an office center and residential buildings, killing 27 and injuring almost 120 people. In Kryviy Rih, an industrial city in the Dnipropetrovsk region, a missile hit an office building of an industrial enterprise (reportedly a Metinvest subsidiary), killing 10 and injuring almost 50. Casualties and damage from Russian missiles strikes were also reported in the city of Dnipro.

Ferrexpo reported 2Q24 pellet production of 1.5 Mt, down 18% q-o-q but up 39% y-o-y, including 1.3 Mt of 65% pellets and 189 kt of DRI pellets. Quarterly concentrate production totaled 189 kt, down 21% q-o-q and up 78% y-o-y. Total production thus came in at 1.7 Mt, down 19% q-o-q but up 43% y-o-y, bringing 1H24 output to 3.7 Mt, up 84% h-o-h and 75% y-o-y.

NBU gross foreign reserves dropped by 2.9% or $1.1bn m-o-m in June, to $37.9bn, down 6.5% YTD. The latest reserve tally was equivalent to 4.9 months of prospective goods and services imports, according to NBU estimates. The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar was flat m-o-m in June at UAH 40.5:USD after dropping by 2.1% in May and 1.1% in April, remaining 6.3% down YTD.

According to provisional data from the Finance Ministry, the central budget ran a cash deficit of UAH 148bn in June ($3.7bn), down from UAH 162bn in May ($4.1bn).

Russian forces make further small gains, mostly in Donetsk region

Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) CEO Yevhen Liashchenko said the company had no plans to increase its freight tariffs in 2024 but expected the Infrastructure Ministry to approve tariff unification. The latter would significantly simplify the company’s tariff structure and help compensate for the growing loss-making transportation of construction materials, adding UAH 3-4bn ($73-98m at current exchange rate) to the P&L by end-2024.

WSE-listed Ovostar Union, one of the largest shell egg producers in Ukraine, announced that the voluntary tender offer to acquire all Ovostar shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (4.55% of shares issued), launched by the company’s majority shareholders Prime One Capital Limited and Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, was completed on Jul. 2. A total of 56,027 (0.934%) shares were tendered, with the majority shareholders’ combined stake increasing to 96.383% as a result.

Ukraine has received a $2.2bn tranche from the IMF, the fifth disbursement from the Fund’s $15.6bn EFF program, after the IMF Board approved the fourth review of the program on Jun. 28.

Ukraine is in talks to transit Azeri gas to Europe, President Ukraine Zelensky said in an interview with Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak said Russia was ready to continue sending pipeline gas via Ukraine to Europe after its current transit contract expired.

Next week’s NATO summit plans to approve EUR 40bn in military aid by alliance members to Ukraine in 2025, along with other support commitments, Reuters reported.

Base load day-ahead (DAHD) power prices in Ukraine grew by 26% m-o-m to UAH 4,981/MWh in June, up 72% y-o-y. Power imports surged 87% m-o-m to 849 GWh, averaging 1.2 GW.

State rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) reported freight transportation of 90 Mt in 1H24, up 16% h-o-h and 28% y-o-y, implying a June volume of 14.9 Mt, down 4.4% m-o-m but up 19% y-o-y.

As of Jul. 2, Ukrainian exports of sugar and shell eggs to the EU have become subject to tariff quotas set by the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement, as prior exports of these products exceeded the respective reference duty-free volumes introduced by a recently revised EU-Ukraine duty-free regime (263 kt and 23 kt, respectively). A new tariff-free quota corresponding to 5/12 of the annual threshold (109 kt for sugar and 10 kt for eggs) will be introduced for Jan. 1-Jun. 5, 2025.

The National Bank’s index of business activity expectations, a PMI-type gauge, dropped by 4.4 points m-o-m in June, to 43.6 on a 0-100 scale (-7.3 y-o-y), following a 4.3pt decline in May.

DTEK Renewables issued a consent solicitation for its 2024 Eurobond due on Nov. 12, 2024