Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit provisionally totaled $3.0bn in April, narrowing from the previous month’s wartime high of $3.5bn as imports fell 11% m-o-m to $6.4bn (still +6.8% y-o-y) and exports dropped 8.3% m-o-m to $3.4bn (flat y-o-y).

Ukraine’s iron ore exports totaled 11.1 Mt in 4M25, down 10% y-o-y, implying a volume of 2.7 Mt in April, down 8.4% m-o-m and 22% y-o-y. In value terms, iron ore exports reached $0.9bn over the period (-21% y-o-y), with April accounting for $205m, a drop of 14% m-o-m and 23% y-o-y.

US President Donald Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, followed by his conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies including the leaders of Finland, France, Germany and Italy and the president of the European Commission. Trump said after the call Ukraine and Russia “will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and … and end to the war” and agree conditions for that between themselves. He said the Vatican was interested in hosting the negotiations. Trump also raised the prospect of “large-scale” US-Russian trade after the war is over, adding that Ukraine can also benefit from unspecified trade deals during post-war reconstruction. Speaking later, Trumps reiterated again that he would abandon his peacemaking role if no progress is made. Meanwhile, Putin said he agreed with Trump that Russia will work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum concerning a “possible future” peace deal that would outline “a framework for resolution, the timeline for potentially concluding a peace agreement, and other relevant details, such as the possibility of a temporary ceasefire if corresponding agreements are reached.” A Kremlin spokesperson later said there was no timeline for negotiating the memorandum.

An IMF mission is today starting discussions with Ukrainian authorities on the eighth review of the Fund’s $15.6bn four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, following a meeting yesterday between Ukrainian officials and an IMF team led by Ukraine mission chief Gavin Grey. Talks will focus on domestic revenue mobilization, public debt sustainability, financial sector structural reforms (including attracting foreign financing for post-war reconstruction), anti-inflationary measures, and further potential FX liberalization.

The government has published unconsolidated financial results for Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA), showing a net loss of UAH 2.7bn ($68m) in 2024, compared to net income of UAH 5.0bn ($138m) in 2023. The company’s end-2024 cash position stood at UAH 13bn ($310m), down 18% y-o-y. RAILUA is currently seeking UAH 4.3bn ($104m) in compensation from the state budget for providing passenger services in areas affected by military hostilities, with a final decision expected in May.

Key highlights from last week: Weeks of slow but steady Russian advances in Donetsk region have created new threats for Pokrovsk and nearby strongholds and compounded pressure on Ukrainian defenses at the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region border. The Ukrainian military assessed Russia’s current force in Ukraine at 640,000, up 40,000 YTD. The latest military command reshuffle in Russia signals determination to continue the war.

The Ukrainian government’s commissioner for public debt management Yuri Butsa held meetings with investors in London last week, reportedly conveying the message that the government is not in a hurry to restructure GDP warrants, Reuters reported, citing three unnamed sources.

US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin today to discuss ending the war in Ukraine as well as bilateral trade. Trump said he would then speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and “various members of NATO,” adding “hopefully it will be a productive day [and] a ceasefire will take place.” Earlier last week, Trump said it was necessary for him to personally meet with Putin to negotiate stopping the war.

WSE-listed Ukrainian agricultural producer IMC reported 1Q25 sales of $51m (-14% y-o-y), a gain from change in fair value of biological assets (IAS 41) of $2m (+2.3x), EBITDA of $8m (+88%; incl. IFRS 16), and net income of $1m (vs. $4m net loss in 1Q24), booking EBITDA and net margins of 15.7% (+8.4pp y-o-y) and 2.3% (+8.7pp).

The stock of outstanding hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose 1.4% m-o-m to UAH 893bn in April following a 2.7% increase in March, keeping the y-o-y growth tally stable at +18%. F/X-denominated loans increased by 2.8% m-o-m to $6.3bn, up 0.3% y-o-y.

Ferrexpo reported that the Poltava Commercial Court has accepted for consideration an application by LLC Financial Company Maxi Capital to open bankruptcy proceedings against Ferrexpo Poltava Mining in connection with a UAH 4.7bn ($113m) surety claim allegedly provided by Ferrexpo under Finance & Credit Bank loan agreements. The court scheduled a preparatory hearing for May 27.

The Kremlin published late on Wednesday President Vladimir Putin’s decree appointing the Russian delegation for talks with Ukraine expected to be held today in Istanbul. According to the document, the delegation will be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky and include the head of Russian military intelligence, a deputy defense minister, and a deputy foreign minister.

Crude steel production in Ukraine rose 30% m-o-m in April, averaging 23.1 kt per day and totaling 692 kt for the month (+26% m-o-m, -3.2% y-o-y). Output over 4M25 reached 2.4 Mt, up 1.0% y-o-y.

Vodafone Ukraine (VFU), Ukraine’s second largest mobile operator, reported 1Q25 revenue of $158m (+2.4% q-o-q and +4.7% y-o-y), EBITDA of $80m (+24% q-o-q, -4.1% y-o-y) and net income of $17m (+11% q-o-q, -30% y-o-y). The EBITDA margin increased 8.8pp q-o-q to 50.7% (-4.6pp y-o-y), with the net margin up by 0.8pp q-o-q to 10.6% (-5.3pp y-o-y).

DTEK Renewables has secured a more than 90% consent rate from bondholders to amend selected covenants and other terms of its 2027 Eurobond with an outstanding volume of EUR 281m. The aim of the consent solicitation was to facilitate the development of the company’s battery storage projects in Ukraine.

The European Union is providing EUR 1.9bn in additional military aid for Ukraine, sourced from windfall profits generated by frozen Russian assets held in the EU. According to PM Denys Shmygal, EUR 1bn out of this amount will be used to procure weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers, EUR 600m will be spent on artillery and ammunition, and over EUR 200m on air defense capabilities. According to EU officials, first contracts with Ukrainian companies, financed by the new aid tranche, have already been signed while the funds earmarked for non-Ukrainian purchases will be put to work in the coming weeks.