Keynote Speech — Michael Carpenter. 14th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference

Dragon Capital held its 14th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference on March 1-2 in Kyiv. As in previous years, the event gathered close to 300 guests, with top speakers addressing the audience of international and local investors including Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, other government members, top management of leading Ukrainian companies, representatives of international financial institutions and western diplomats. Over 25 Ukrainian and foreign TV channels, news wires and other print and online media covered the event.
Below please find highlights from the keynote speech delivered by Michael Carpenter, Senior Director, Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement.

• Ukraine is waging struggle on three fronts: the war with Russia, domestic reforms, and fight against corruption. It is winning on the first one, “doing well” on the second, but failing on the third (anti-corruption). As long as Ukraine cannot overcome its challenges in a convincing way, Russia will exploit its vulnerabilities. “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants control of Ukraine” does not necessarily mean territorial control.

• Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker’s mission to help advance a settlement with Russia on Donbas has thus far achieved little because Putin cannot allow a “meaningful peacekeeping operation” in eastern Ukraine as that would mean the loss of an important lever to pressure the country. Ukraine has therefore to prepare for a “long game” in Donbas and stand ready to continue to “defend itself from Russian aggression and Russian subversion.”

• This is where the fight against corruption and, more broadly, establishing the rule of law comes in as the most effective means of countering Russia’s efforts to undermine Ukraine from within in the long term. Reforms must be accelerated, as “you don’t have the time you think you have.” Otherwise, the risk of an anti-western, populist reversal will only increase, and that will be a “rational” popular reaction to the failure of western-demanded reforms to bring real change.

• Talk of Ukrainian reforms will continue to get lost in the west as long as the country’s leadership fails to demonstrate genuine and effective anticorruption efforts. As far as the anti-corruption court is concerned, the west will pay little attention to Ukraine’s assurances of meeting the recommendations of the Venice Commission and other rhetoric as long as it has doubts that this judicial branch is fully independent.